Will The O’s Land Teixeira?

YES!!

This is my take on the whole Teixeira sweepstakes, probably way wrong but here is what I think is going on. Obviously smokescreens are being set everywhere. We don’t know exactly who has a serious offer on the table or who is in, who is out? Are the Red Sox really out, or are they just working Boras? Are the Yankees going to come to the table with ridiculous money? Does he play near his home in MD, but not for the O’s but for the Nationals? Does he stay with the Angels?

No, I think he signs with the Orioles. When the Orioles made an initial offer to Boras to show they are in the ballgame, that was all I needed to see. I believe that the Orioles will have the right to match any offer. I think Boras is out trying to get a $200 million dollar contract for Tex, because it’s his job, but ultimately he will not get the $200 million. He will probably get the 8 year $185 million that is being reported in the press. I believe Teixeira will then ask him to see if the Orioles will match it, because Baltimore is where he wants to be. Baltimore probably will not match it however, they will probably offer around 1-1.5 million less per year. At this point Tex will have to decide if wants to play for Baltimore at a “hometown discount,” or play for Boston. Whats 21 million per compared to 22 million? He chooses Baltimore (it may take an opt-out clause after 3 years, based on how competitive the Orioles are.)

The Orioles then need to sign Nick Markakis to a 6 year 75 million contract to lock him up. Committing $250 million dollars is a lot, but you’ll be set for the future. Tex, Markakis, Matt Weiters, and Adam Jones form an awesome nucleus to build around.
Here is a tentative lineup for 2009.